Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
